MLB Picks: April 20, 2010

KC (Davies) at TOR (Eveland): Under 9 (+110)
Eveland is hot and the Royals' lineup is weak, so even if Eveland struggles I don't expect a blowout. Davies isn't great, but he throws a good one now and then and I'm not totally sold on the Jays' offense. Parlay this to Toronto -137 if you're feeling frisky.


MIL (Bush) at PIT (Morton): Over 9.5 (-105)
Has Dave Bush ever been good? Who is Charlie Morton (0-2, 13.5) anyway? Are Braun, Fielder, and McGehee all injured and nobody told me? Expect offense.


COL (De La Rosa) at WAS (Olsen): No great opportunities here
I'm not loving the price on the Rockies -144, and +115 for the Rockies to cover 1.5 runs is pretty weak. The over/under is at 9 for -120/Even, but I'm not even sure which side I'd take. I'd think to take the under since the Rockies are away from Coors and De La Rosa is a solid pitcher, but would you be surprised to see a final score around 7-3?


CHC (Zambrano) at NYM (Pelfrey): Skip It
I don't trust either pitcher (even at Citi Field) and the over/under is at 8 runs for -120/even. I see no reason to pick either team at -105, so it's even harder to justify calling the Cubs to cover by 1.5 runs. The safest bet is Mets +1.5, but that's obvious... which is why you'd have to pay at -170 to play there. Skip it.


LAD (Billingsley) at CIN (Bailey): Over 9.5 (-110)
Billinglsey hasn't been good this year, and while he'll probably turn it around, he wasn't very good against the Reds during his breakout 2009 either. If Homer Bailey weren't a disaster waiting to happen I'd take the Reds +122 easy, but since that's not the case I feel good about the over with two dangerous lineups facing two shaky starters in a hitter's park.


TEX (Lewis) at BOS (Wakefield): TEX +122
Sometimes Tim Wakefield is exactly what the Red Sox need to get out of a slump, and sometimes he gives up four home runs in a game. (And one time, it was both). Texas is loaded, Lewis has a few good starts under his belt, Wakefield isn't in his dominant stretch of the season yet, and the Red Sox lineup features Bill Hall and Mike Cameron. Bet against Boston while they're down and people still expect them to win, because at least one of those things is due to change very soon. Plus, if Boston wins... hey at least Boston won!


PHI (Kendrick) at ATL (Hanson): PHI +143
You know it has to be Tommy Hanson pitching when you see the Phillies as a huge underdog to the Braves, but as much as I have a man-crush on Tommy Hanson, I have to bet against him here. The Phillies are still an elite team, Hanson hasn't found great control yet (7 walks in 11.1 innings), Hanson was 0-2, 6.70 against the Phillies last year, and let's face it-- you're getting +143. I'm happy to lose this one.


FLA (Volstad) at HOU (Myers): FLA -1.5 (+145) and Under 8.5 (+110) [Parlay Special! +352]
The Astros are bad.


TB (Price) at CWS (Danks): Pass
I don't like David Price enough to trust him yet, but I respect his talent enough to not bet against him. Same goes for Danks, and the same goes for either of these offenses. The over/under is at 8 for -120/Even so feel free to go under if you think both pitchers are sure things. I don't.


CLE (Masterson) at MIN (Slowey): Under 9.5 (Even)
This game is pretty similar to TB/CWS in my eyes, except the over/under is a full 1.5 runs higher and I'm more confident that at least one of these pitchers won't get blown out. I'm anticipating a 5-3, 5-4 game in either direction.


STL (Lohse) at ARI (Haren): Um...
I'm reluctant to bet against the Cardinals, but I'm terrified of betting against Dan Haren before the All-Star break. I think at least one offense will go off, so I'd take over 8.5 it weren't penalized at -125. I'm not comfortable picking the Diamondbacks to win (nevermind by 1.5), but I have no reason to think the Cardinals are a sure thing to cover 1.5 at -170. This one beats me.


SF (Sanchez) at SD (Latos): Under 7 (-110)
It's surprising how easy it is to lose an under 7, but there are rare circumstances when I'll take it. Sanchez is dirty, Latos is better than he's shown so far, neither offense is scary and Petco is the ultimate pitcher's park. SF -120 seems acceptable because SF probably has the edge in pitching and hitting, but if Latos does his thing this could go either way.


NYY (Vazquez) at OAK (Gonzalez): Over 8.5 (-110)
I hate Javier Vazquez. He's an overrated Yankee who doesn't belong in the American League, and this season he's 0-2, 9.82. As tempted as I was to take OAK +142, there's an obvious reason not to bet against Vazquez: he could let up 5 runs in 5 innings and still get the win here. Gio Gonzalez may be the next dominant A's pitcher but can't be trusted against the Yankees yet, and I think it's we'll see at least 7-9 runs scored before the relievers take over.


DET (Porcello) at LAA (Kazmir): DET +112
As much as I hate to admit it, Scott Kazmir is one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball. Porcello is coming into his own and the Tigers have a reasonable offense, so why not? I'd like better odds for this upset but +112 is passable and I don't see a better line for this game.


BAL (Hernandez) at SEA (Vargas): BAL +132
Hey, the Orioles aren't THAT bad. They'll probably win 70 games, so who says this won't be one of them? The Mariners are nothing special, Claudio Vargas isn't a sure thing, and at +132 you only have to win 3 out of every 7 to break even.


Alright ladies and gentlemen, that's all 15 games for today. Leave some comments, and tune in tomorrow for today's results and 15 fresh predictions.

The Numbers

For those of you who are unfamiliar: a negative line means you stand to make LESS than your original bet as profit if you win. If you bet $1.00 on a -110 line and win, you will receive:

• Your $1 back
• Profit according to the formula: ORIGINAL BET / MULTIPLIER, where the multiplier is the absolute value of the line divided by 100. In this case, |110|/100 = 1.1; $1.00 / 1.1 = $0.909
• $1.00 + $0.909 = $1.909

Betting $1.00 on a +100 line and winning will earn you:

• Your $1 back
• Profit according to the formula: ORIGINAL BET * MULTIPLIER, where the multiplier is the line divided by 100. In this case, 110/100 = 1.1; $1 * 1.1 = $1.10
• $1.00 + $1.10 = $2.10

Finally, for the sake of simplicity, I'd like to clarify what I consider to be three types of bets that can be pretty useful for reporting statistics:

• Regular bets: most lines for basketball, football, and over/unders in baseball fall between -105 and -115, but I'm counting from Even (100) to -120 for reporting ease.
• Safe bets: anything -120 or more negative. Usually a lot of people are choosing these because they are (supposedly) more likely, and therefore offer less profit for betting and winning.
• Money bets: anything with a + before it. Betting on a + is against the grain, and the system tempts you to take the bet by offering you a good premium if you win. 

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CENTSPORTS RESULTS  as of April 20, 2010:

All-time Win-Loss: 39-28 (58.2%)

-->Regular bets: 5-7 (41.7%)
-->Safe bets: 13-6 (68.4%)
-->Money bets: 21-15 (58.3%)

All-time Average Line: -102.3

Centsports Balance: $9.80

Welcome to Max Bets!

Hello fellow gamblers!

If you're like me, you know that the most mundane things can be just a bit more interesting if you make a wager on it. A dollar for whoever gets closest to the exact time your dinner reservation gets called? Ok. Two for over/under the population of the United States at 320,000,000? Sure, I know that one. 30:1 against a tactical nuke in my next game of Call of Duty? Come on, it's just a dollar. (Or two... or thirty, if I win). But bragging rights are forever, and once in a while there's nothing like betting and being right.

I'm not an expert on gambling but I like talking about it, I like reading about it, and I like doing it (within reason). This blog is mainly for my own tracking and amusement purposes, but hey-- maybe you'll get something out of it too. Through it I'll be making public all the bets I make, my reasoning, and how much of a sucker I am. For now, it's mostly a guide to betting MLB games as I see them on CentSports.


For those of you who are unfamiliar, CentSports.com is a gambling website that offers you a free ten cents for betting on sports games, and if you work up past $20 you can cash out and they'll send you a check. From March 22 to the start of Major League Baseball I turned that ten cents into about $3 betting aggressively, often betting up to half of my account at a time just trying to build up a few dollars to work with. But over the 14 games of the baseball season since then, I've bet very conservatively-- never more than 10% of my account on any one game-- and turned that $3 into just about $10. Clearly, it's gone to my head.

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